Apple’s foldable iPhone could become the No. 2 foldable in its first year

Apple’s first foldable iPhone could capture around 25% of the global foldable smartphone market in 2026, putting the company in second place in its first year in the category, according to Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint expects Apple to ship up to 6 million foldable iPhones in 2026, enough to move ahead of Huawei at 22% while remaining behind Samsung at 38%. Analysts say reaching the No. 2 position that quickly would be significant given the short sales window, with early volumes expected to be limited more by production capacity than by demand. 

“Even with the short selling window, we still expect Apple to take 25% of the global foldable market and directly move into the No.2 position,” Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee said. 

The bigger shift is expected in 2027, when Apple will have a full year of sales. Counterpoint forecasts shipments to more than double and Apple’s share to reach 40%, potentially moving it ahead of Samsung’s projected 2026 share. The broader foldable market is also expected to grow 37% year over year in 2027, its strongest expansion since 2022. 

Foldables are still a niche category, accounting for only about 2% of the overall smartphone market, while prices remain roughly three times higher than those of traditional slab phones. Cumulative foldable shipments are expected to pass 100 million units by the end of 2026, with Xiaomi, Motorola, HONOR, Google, vivo and OPPO also preparing new models, including wider book-style devices.